🔗 Share this article

Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It frequently functions as a type of apology. We regret we got wrong your team in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a direct path: the coach who orchestrated the largest turnaround is handed the award. However, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or merely the biggest shock.

But the current competition is distinctly unique. The pool of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners declining and recent underperformers improving collectively. During an typical year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a turbulent and fun season, he's competing with multiple other outstanding candidates.

This is how the projected vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been able to create big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a typical year!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the intangibles stuff, which was not a given following his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an early strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still