🔗 Share this article A United Ireland Referendum Must Not Transform Into 'A Sequel to Brexit', Analysts Alert Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again. Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared. That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland. Governmental Establishments Unprepared The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote. "The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile." Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy. They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month. "What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst. "We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won." Constitutional Provision Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support. Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum. Insufficient Serious Debate Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist. "Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?" Volume's Strategy In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models. Debates encompass identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation. "Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides." Dual Referendums A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage. "Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator. Likelihood of Referendum The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'" Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the opposing positions." Call for Broader Dialogue Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."